Yes...for anyone on the east coast...here...we go...again.
A low pressure system currently getting organized over the plains of South Texas and being fed with moisture from as far away as Hawaii and Cuba (as is very clearly evident on water vapor satellite imagery this evening) will lift northeast into Kentucky and Southern Ohio by Friday morning. Here, this storm will run into an abundance of cold, dry air current in place over the northeast US and snows will break out ahead of it. It will then transfer its energy to a new area of low pressure expected to develop near Cape Hatteras, NC, and that system will lift northeast along the boundary between the warm Gulf Stream and the cold shelf waters off the New England coast (a natural clash and warm and cold air that can help to intensify a storm and guide it northeastward). This classic nor'easter track threatens to bring excessively heavy snowfall to the big cities along the I-95 corridor from Washington DC to New York City and possibly even Boston, though the storm is forecast to turn eastward somewhere south of the Long Island coast as it slams into a powerful blocking ridge over Canada.
A widespread area of 4+ inch snows will begin in the Ohio Valley and overspread the Mid Atlantic States Friday into Saturday as this storm evolves. However, when the coastal storm takes over, an area of much heavier snows, possibly in excess of a foot and as much as two feet, may become common near or within the metropolitan cities of the I-95 corridor. Heaviest snowfall will occur if and when embedded heavy bands form within the overall area of moderate snow, so total accumulations may vary greatly from region to region. A preliminary snowfall forecast is attached to this post for your convenience, however, particularly north of Philadelphia, it should be noted that considerable uncertainty remains and that a change in the track of the coastal storm of as little as fifty miles could be the difference between no snow at all and a major weather disaster, so this forecast is subject to revision as the storm's evolution comes into better focus tomorrow.
What may turn into one of the ten or fifteen worst winters in modern history when all is said and done is unlikely to end after this storm passes. Reinforcing cold air behind the storm should keep the freshly laid snow around for quite some time and additional weather threats from a very active southern branch of the jet stream loom in its wake.
Stay tuned for further updates.
Text Forecasts for Specific Urban Locations (my median numbers, which I will verify against reality after the storm passes):
ReplyDeleteACY (Atlantic City, NJ) - 8" (sleet may be a factor)
ALB (Albany, NY) - 0"
ANP (Anapolis, MD) - 12"
AOO (Altoona, PA) - 10"
BAL (Baltimore, MD) - 16"
BDL (Hartford, CT) - 6"
BOS (Boston, MA) - 3"
BWI (Baltimore/Washington Airpot, MD) - 22"
CHV (Charlottesville, VA) - 14" (a bit of sleet)
CWV (Charleston, WV) - 6" (mixing with rain Friday afternoon)
DCA (Washington, DC) - 16"
DOV (Dover, DE) - 15" (a bit of sleet)
EPT (Eastport, ME) - 0"
EWR (Newark, NJ) - 17"
FDK (Frederick, MD) - 18"
GBO (Greensboro, NC) - 5" (starting as rain, ending as sleet)
HAR (Harrisburg, PA) - 14"
HGR (Hagerstown, MD) - 16"
HVN (New Haven, CT) - 16"
IAD (Washington Dulles - Sterling, VA) - 20"
IPT (Williamsport, PA) - 8"
ISP (Islip, NY) - 18"
JFK (JFK Airport, NYC) - 15"
LGA (LaGuardia Airport, NYC) - 12"
NYC (Central Park, NYC) - 12"
ORF (Norfolk, VA) - 1" (wrap-around snow at the end, all rain otherwise)
PHI (Philadelphia, PA) - 20"
PIT (Pittsburgh, PA) - 8"
PRV (Providence, RI) - 10"
RIC (Richmond, VA) - 6"
TTN (Trenton, NJ) - 18"
UNV (State College, PA) - 8"
WOR (Worchester, MA) - 2"
YNK (Yonkers, NY) - 12"
I'm confused about one thing. In your last paragraph, you say "What may turn into one of the ten or fifteen worst winters in modern history when all is said and done is likely to end after this storm passes," but after that, you say there are more threats on the horizon. Did you mean to say "not likely to end"?
ReplyDeleteGr...stupid typos...I fixed that and one other error I found.
ReplyDeleteYes I meant that more threats were on the horizon.
The readers should be aware if they live north of a line from Binghamton to NYC that I am trimming back the heavy snow area...recent trends in the modeling suggest that the heavy snow may stay juuuuust offshore of Long Island for most of the event. As someone who lives on Long Island and loves snow, this might be the most painful weather event I've experienced in recent memory. :\
As I warned in the original post, however, the northern fringes were where the uncertainty in my forecast was the greatest...and the trend has been to cut the storm off a little further south. Meaning DC is the heart of this storm and NYC may get missed.